Shi Hanbing: Development business should regain consciousness

From;    Author:Stand originally
Newspaper of negotiable securities of observer of engage by special arrangement of alliance of person of medium of Nanjing college visiting professor, China, Shanghai comments on edition chief editor   of Shi Hanbing already was destined this year is China estate market troubled a year. Begin from the beginning of the year, chinese public endured estate market in succession " inflection point is talked " , " 100 days of great change " talk those who wait for all sorts of argument " bomb " , but what although trade in housing,the volume drops already generally is current, the remains house price too high to reach that people experiences. Recently, pan Shige of president of SOHO China limited company alleges publicly again, the price of its real-estate project will be overall go up tone. The reason of the attune on its has 3, it is to build raw material price to rise considerably; The 2 prices that are market of eye anteroom real estate had entered bottom, it is the inning that all sorts of capital enter estate market to copy a bottom; 3 it is the economy that values Chinese future, house price rises is to wait necessarily. Plant in this " contradictory " in atmosphere, this print journalist interviewed Shi Hanbing of news analyst of famous finance and economics. He holds contrary manner to Pan Shige's argument, and make clear express, appear in Chinese estate market comprehensive periodic below adjustment circumstance, the adjustment of estate value just just begins. "Heat sells " it is   of agreeable result   " round-the-world character " : Recently, 10 thousand divisions were started again in Shanghai and other places new round depreciate wet, and the Lou Panquan face that Pan Shige announces SOHO China real estate is subordinate however carries valence, clinch a deal in current estate below the situation that measures atrophy, you how look upon this contrast? Shi Hanbing: What 10 thousand divisions depreciate is the residence, pan Shige alleges those who rise in price is commercial real estate. When comparing this one problem, be necessary will both departure. Nevertheless, of Pan Shige rise in price to still do not have delegate meaning, towering like a mountain peak with respect to Lian Panshi oneself also admit, the sell like hot cakes of single item does not represent the capital predicament of whole real-estate industry to be changed somewhat. Residential price has exceeded real purchasing power of the people far, dropping is inevitable. Commercial real estate because its characteristic (commercial real estate is inside gross of whole estate development, specific gravity is occupied lesserly; The demand with the demand landed to the residence unlike with landed to commerce market is mixed in great quantities in that way pressing; The object of this state adjusting control, basically also be to be aimed at residential real estate) , can be later than the adjustment of residential market. But, those who need an attention is, because commercial real estate is faced with empty buy rate to rise at present,reach action business to wait for a problem hard, accordingly, investment business real estate needs discretion. " round-the-world character " : Project of SOHO of 3 lis of collect sells because of heat and wide suffer attention, what is you think its heat up the reason that sell? Shi Hanbing: Actually, what say here " heat sells " , just be a kind of hype, and this kind " heat sells " the part of commercial real estate that what point to merely is SOHO of 3 lis of collect (business shop and office building) , sale of its house share is slow still. On August 29 " new capital signs up for " report: "Work off is registered before approval opened to booking apartment to look on July 12 58, the salesperson expresses to still near 400 can offer a choice. " this report is very good answer. What weigh partly as to real estate of commerce of SOHO of 3 lis of collect " heat sells " , I consider as agreeable the result. Although the seize a chance to seek private gain is short-term inside to development business brought accrual, but if commercial real estate was not hired do not go out, utilization rate is reduced, will bring huge risk to these investment, adventurer. In the meantime, what SOHO of 3 lis of collect adopts is " medicinal powder carry out " sell means, namely " sold " . The personage inside course of study points out: "Medicinal powder the managemant decision authority that carry out means bazaar will be split in hands of each small or petty proprietor, meaning condition of market fixed position, industry to plan is one paper only theoretic. " price of   tall house already became   of   of of water without a source " round-the-world character " : You begin from 2006, you were rolled out " book of Chinese sex black skin " , so, you think to arrive 3 years from 2006 in, does estate market of China appear a what kind of curve is those who go out? Curvilinear backside, what to show? Shi Hanbing: From 2006 up to now in 3 years, the house price of many countrywide places rose one times much. It is a prices that rises point-blank almost. Only Shenzhen, Guangzhou waits bead trigonometry area, house price dropped really this year. Actually, our country rises from March 2005, had begun market of adjusting control estate, but, house price blazes new trails repeatedly instead in adjusting control sound tall. Its are main the reason has 3: Above all, price rises greatly during this. Local government is passed " action pat hang " (invite public bidding, auction or hang out one's shingle) the competition that policy attracts development business, price of ceaseless drive up. Next, development business to go after self interest the biggest change, corner land, defer development, bring about land sell one's own things although the area is very big, but the addition of available supply is restricted however. Additional, the collective hoard for speculation such as the development business, person that fry a room is much housing, also reduced available supply further. Again, safeguard sex housing supplies serious inadequacy. In April 2006 when, city of above of 70 ground level has not carried out cheap to hire housing system, although some places were executed, but cheap hires house measure very few. This makes a when can restrain commodity house to rise in price fundamental strength by built on stilts. " round-the-world character " : Excuse me of Juan of shoot a glance at of  of  a kind of net used for fishing or for dredging up river sludge ton?008 of Liang of な of flatter of discharge  thirsty Lu) " , look in you, what characteristic does the estate market this year have? What experience do you have? Shi Hanbing: The estate market this year, a the most apparent characteristic is, clinch a deal the quantity is exceeding and atrophic, estate market is stagnant. This explains, in house price the circumstance of real purchasing power issues serious deviate people, house price is to went up to be not moved really, the house price that lacks purchasing power to prop up had become water without a source, without this wood. Clinching a deal merely the quantity is atrophic and house price (besides bead trigonometry area) did not drop to still be in even apparently slowgoing below the circumstance that rise, it is all sorts of interest principal part of the representing in order to develop business, bank, local government, begin city is saved in the center of go canvassing. From which, we are experienced not hard, the desire that vested interest group safeguards him sudden huge profits is how intense. The in successive years of house price rises, to housing problem of this one the people's livelihood is endangered great, in the meantime, house price rises to be aided again push inflation, overdraw the people's consumption, bring about our country economy to develop too depend on investment and exit and inside need to be pulled repeatedly do not move. Can say, tall house price endangers the people's livelihood not only, the economic progress that also gives our country brings tremendous barrier. On the other hand, if house price continues to rise, illegally or forcibly occupy the hot money in city of our country room to be covered more easily leave now, cause crisis of city of a building very easily. Accordingly, estate foamy extruding should undertake before it is too late, ignore foamy existence can bury next bigger hidden trouble only. " round-the-world character " : At present the market has two kinds of viewpoints: Somebody thinks house price adjusts next year the beginning of the year after all, additionally also the expert states house price is reduced will be long-term trend, so do you think? Shi Hanbing: After I think house price measures atrophy to be dish of entire level of the feature with clinching a deal in the course, be down suddenly probably. Be in Beijing especially city of such a gleam of, the extent that house price tomorrow adjusts will be a few deeper. " round-the-world character " : You think the country is released recently " the announcement that promotes managing intensive to use the ground about finance " can what kind of to market generation influence? Shi Hanbing: The country releases recently " the announcement that promotes managing intensive to use the ground about finance " did clearer limitation to developing the behavior of business corner land, this develops what have land quickly plan, increase the available supply of the market, have apparent inhibition to house price. Development business still is holding an illusion in the arms to hold out     to death " round-the-world character " : Is at present the house price of Beijing formed which a few parts to include? The house price photograph that is like new York, London with foreign big city is compared, is the house price of Beijing high? Shi Hanbing: Not only Beijing, chengdu of house price compose is roughly identical. In our country current commodity house cost is formed in, construction cost actually very small, the majority cost of the others comprises by 3: It is gold of land sell one's own things; 2 it is the tax cost with various items; 3 it is by authority money trades the corrupt cost that bring about. With abroad big city photograph is compared, house price of China, resemble Beijing especially the house price of city of such a gleam of is very tall. Data shows, march 2008 portion, valence is every two hundred and twenty-seven thousand six hundred dollar among sale of American bridal chamber. This data basically points to alone building, namely villatic, the area is every to cover left and right sides of 200 square metre commonly, and to decorate a room completely. The unit price of the American housing that accordingly computation comes out is 7000 yuan about / square metre. The average price that our country new house sold 2007 is 3655 yuan / square metre (the wool embryo room that did not decorate) , if add jacket to repair, unit price is in 4100 yuan about / square metre left and right sides. If consider house price of the United States includes land, and our house price has land access of 70 years only, the average per capita that considers the United States again year income is us is 30 times more adjacent, and social security mechanism of the United States is close friends wait an element a moment at China, can say, and other places of Beijing, Shanghai conforms with the house price of world developed country already. " round-the-world character " : Estate market is current capital insecurity has been the fact that does not contend for, between estate development company recombine, make over land, retreat ground incident to also happen ceaselessly in each cities even. This estate company with current specification is in those who experience discard of bad of a superior to adjust? Shi Hanbing: Yes. Achieve when real estate " it is a house can sell, and sell a good price " when the degree, when any development business can earn sudden huge profits when, also explain, this industry has appeared serious problem, must make this industry competition, achieve the purpose of superior bad discard. " round-the-world character " : What is the problem that you think estate company is the at present biggest? Shi Hanbing: Current, the question with Chinese estate the biggest company is to be enmeshed in the angle to sudden huge profits to not be willing to awake, had come when cold winter when, the development business with not only much amount to depreciates carry out room, majority development business still is holding an illusion in the arms to be held out to death. Chinese house price is necessary to adjust, make these development business thoroughly sober come down.

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